Computational Models of Social Cognition

Dae Houlihan
COGS 50.09

Winter 2026


This course introduces the philosophy and practice of building computational models of social cognition. The course will follow three themes. The topic-theme, social cognition, will explore how people infer beliefs and preferences, plan interactions, and reason about emotions. Other topics in cognitive science will be incorporated to build a conceptual foundation for thinking about how people represent each other. The theoretical-theme, models as epistemological expressions, will emphasize thinking deeply about why and how models are made and used. We will consider how scientists’ views on the mind and the world shape their approaches to building models of the mind, models of people’s mental models of the world, and models of people’s mental models of other minds. We will examine aspects of modeling that are often implicit or deemphasized, including what alternative models were not chosen, the philosophical traditions behind modeling assumptions, how information is learned and represented by models, how data is measured and used, and the various goals and functions of modeling. The methodological-theme, probabilistic programming, will give you a skillset for building formal cognitive models. You will be introduced to probabilistic programming using the PPL memo.

Schedule

Date Topic Reading Assignments
Mon
Jan 5
Introduction to the course
Wed
Jan 7
Modeling cognition
• ontology and epistemology
• representation and abstraction
• levels of analysis
Mon
Jan 12
What is a model? Probability as extended logic
Wed
Jan 14
Belief
• recursive (level-k) beliefs
Fri
Jan 16
PPL Exercise Due
Mon
Jan 19
Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Class moved to Friday Jan 23
Wed
Jan 21
Bayes’ rule Tutorial: Bayes’ rule
Fri
Jan 23
5:30-7:20pm
NB Special Date & Time
Bayes is generative
Mon
Jan 26
Modeling as philosophy
Wed
Jan 28
Intuitive Theories
  • Gerstenberg & Tenenbaum (2017)
  • Lake et al. (2017)
Fri
Jan 30
PPL Exercise Due
Mon
Feb 2
Causal models
Wed
Feb 4
Dependence
Mon
Feb 9
Causal motifs
Wed
Feb 11
Conditional dependence and intervention
Mon
Feb 16
Causal Analysis
  • Cinelli et al. (2022)
  • Chandra et al. (n.d.)
Wed
Feb 18
Theory of Mind
Fri
Feb 20
PPL Exercise Due
Mon
Feb 23
Inverse Planning
  • Baker et al. (2017)
  • Rabinowitz et al. (2018)
  • Zhi-Xuan et al. (2022)
  • Gandhi et al. (2021)
Wed
Feb 25
No Class
Fri
Feb 27
PPL Exercises Due
Mon
Mar 2
Emotion Prediction, Emotion Inference
  • Houlihan et al. (2023)
  • Houlihan et al. (2022)
  • Thornton & Tamir (2017)
  • Cowen & Keltner (2020)
  • Ong et al. (2015)
Wed
Mar 4
Learning Probabilistic Programs
  • Lake et al. (2015)
  • Hewitt et al. (2020)
Mon
Mar 9
Neuro-Symbolic Probabilistic Program Synthesis
  • Ellis et al. (2023)
  • Wong et al. (2025)
  • Goodman et al. (2023)
  • Wong et al. (2023)
Fri
Mar 13
3pm
NB Date & Time

Learning Resources

Probabilistic Models of Cognition

Causal Modeling and Bayesian Data Analysis (BDA)

Probability Theory

memo

Acknowledgments

  • This course is heavily informed by ProbMods (Goodman et al., 2016).

    NoteCitation

    N. D. Goodman, J. B. Tenenbaum, and The ProbMods Contributors (2016). Probabilistic Models of Cognition (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://probmods.org/

    BibTeX
    @misc{probmods2,
      title = {{Probabilistic Models of Cognition}},
      edition = {Second},
      author = {Goodman, Noah D. and Tenenbaum, Joshua B. and The ProbMods Contributors},
      year = {2016},
      howpublished = {\url{http://probmods.org/v2}}
    }
  • Huge thanks to Kartik Chandra for building memo, and adapting it for this course.

References

Baker, Chris L., Jara-Ettinger, Julian, Saxe, Rebecca, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2017). Rational quantitative attribution of beliefs, desires and percepts in human mentalizing. Nature Human Behaviour, 1(4), 598. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0064
Chandra, Kartik, Chen, Tony, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., & Ragan-Kelley, Jonathan. (2025). A domain-specific probabilistic programming language for reasoning about reasoning (or: A memo on memo). Proc. ACM Program. Lang., 9. https://doi.org/10.1145/3763078
Chandra, Kartik, Ragan-Kelley, Jonathan, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (n.d.). Theories of Mind as Languages of Thought for Thought about Thought.
Cinelli, Carlos, Forney, Andrew, & Pearl, Judea. (2022). A Crash Course in Good and Bad Controls. Sociological Methods & Research, 00491241221099552. https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241221099552
Cowen, Alan S., & Keltner, Dacher. (2020). What the face displays: Mapping 28 emotions conveyed by naturalistic expression. American Psychologist, 75(3), 349–364. https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000488
Cushman, Fiery. (2024). Computational Social Psychology. Annual Review of Psychology, 75(1), 625–652. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-021323-040420
Ellis, Kevin, Wong, Lionel, Nye, Maxwell, Sablé-Meyer, Mathias, Cary, Luc, Anaya Pozo, Lore, Hewitt, Luke, Solar-Lezama, Armando, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2023). DreamCoder: Growing generalizable, interpretable knowledge with wake–sleep Bayesian program learning. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 381(2251), 20220050. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0050
Gandhi, Kanishk, Stojnic, Gala, Lake, Brenden M., & Dillon, Moira R. (2021). Baby Intuitions Benchmark (BIB): Discerning the goals, preferences, and actions of others. In M. Ranzato, A. Beygelzimer, Y. Dauphin, P. S. Liang, & J. Wortman Vaughan (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems (Vol. 34, pp. 9963–9976). Curran Associates, Inc. https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2021/file/525b8410cc8612283c9ecaf9a319f8ed-Paper.pdf
Gerstenberg, Tobias, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2017). Intuitive Theories. In Michael Waldmannn (Ed.), Oxford handbook of causal reasoning (pp. 515–548). Oxford University Press.
Goodman, Noah D., Gerstenberg, Tobias, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2023). Probabilistic programs as a unifying language of thought. In Nick Chater & Joshua Tenenbaum (Eds.), Bayesian models of cognition: Reverse engineering the mind. MIT Press.
Goodman, Noah D., Tenenbaum, Joshua B., & Contributors, The ProbMods. (2016). Probabilistic models of cognition (Second). http://probmods.org/v2
Griffiths, Thomas L., Chater, Nick, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2024). Bayesian models of cognition: Reverse engineering the mind. The MIT Press.
Hewitt, Luke B., Anh Le, Tuan, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2020). Learning to learn generative programs with Memoised Wake-Sleep. In Jonas Peters & David Sontag (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence (UAI) (Vol. 124, pp. 1278–1287). PMLR. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v124/hewitt20a.html
Houlihan, Sean Dae, Kleiman-Weiner, Max, Hewitt, Luke B., Tenenbaum, Joshua B., & Saxe, Rebecca. (2023). Emotion prediction as computation over a generative theory of mind. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 381(2251), 20220047. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0047
Houlihan, Sean Dae, Ong, Desmond, Cusimano, Maddie, & Saxe, Rebecca. (2022). Reasoning about the antecedents of emotions: Bayesian causal inference over an intuitive theory of mind. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 44, 854–861. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sn3w3n2
Jaynes, Edwin T. (2003). Probability theory: The logic of science (G. L. Bretthorst, Ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790423
Lake, Brenden M., Salakhutdinov, Ruslan, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2015). Human-level concept learning through probabilistic program induction. Science, 350(6266), 1332–1338. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3050
Lake, Brenden M., Ullman, Tomer D., Tenenbaum, Joshua B., & Gershman, Samuel J. (2017). Building machines that learn and think like people. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 40, e253. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X16001837
Ma, Wei Ji, Kording, Konrad, & Goldreich, Daniel. (2023). Bayesian models of perception and action: An introduction. The MIT Press.
Marr, David. (1982). Vision: A computational investigation into the human representation and processing of visual information. W.H. Freeman.
McElreath, Richard. (2016). Statistical rethinking: A Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan. CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
Moon, Katie, & Blackman, Deborah. (2014). A Guide to Understanding Social Science Research for Natural Scientists. Conservation Biology, 28(5), 1167–1177. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12326
Ong, Desmond C., Zaki, Jamil, & Goodman, Noah D. (2015). Affective cognition: Exploring lay theories of emotion. Cognition, 143, 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2015.06.010
Pearl, Judea, & Mackenzie, Dana. (2019). The book of why: The new science of cause and effect. Penguin Books.
Phillips, Jonathan, Buckwalter, Wesley, Cushman, Fiery, Friedman, Ori, Martin, Alia, Turri, John, Santos, Laurie, & Knobe, Joshua. (2021). Knowledge before belief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 44, 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X20000618
Poldrack, Russell A. (2021). The physics of representation. Synthese, 199(1), 1307–1325. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-020-02793-y
Rabinowitz, Neil, Perbet, Frank, Song, Francis, Zhang, Chiyuan, Eslami, S. M. Ali, & Botvinick, Matthew. (2018). Machine theory of mind. In Jennifer Dy & Andreas Krause (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th international conference on machine learning (Vol. 80, pp. 4218–4227). PMLR. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v80/rabinowitz18a.html
Sap, Maarten, LeBras, Ronan, Fried, Daniel, & Choi, Yejin. (2023, April 3). Neural Theory-of-Mind? On the Limits of Social Intelligence in Large LMs. http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.13312
Saxe, Rebecca. (2005). Against simulation: The argument from error. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 9(4), 174–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2005.01.012
Shea, Nicholas. (2018). Representation in Cognitive Science (Vol. 1). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198812883.001.0001
Thornton, Mark A., & Tamir, Diana I. (2017). Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(23), 5982–5987. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1616056114
Ullman, Tomer. (2023, February 16). Large Language Models Fail on Trivial Alterations to Theory-of-Mind Tasks. http://arxiv.org/abs/2302.08399
Varela, Francisco J., Thompson, Evan, & Rosch, Eleanor. (1991). The embodied mind: Cognitive science and human experience. (pp. xx, 308). The MIT Press.
Wong, Lionel, Collins, Katherine M., Ying, Lance, Zhang, Cedegao E., Weller, Adrian, Gerstenberg, Tobias, O’Donnell, Timothy, Lew, Alexander K., Andreas, Jacob D., Tenenbaum, Joshua B., & Brooke-Wilson, Tyler. (2025, July 18). Modeling Open-World Cognition as On-Demand Synthesis of Probabilistic Models. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.12547
Wong, Lionel, Grand, Gabriel, Lew, Alexander K., Goodman, Noah D., Mansinghka, Vikash K., Andreas, Jacob, & Tenenbaum, Joshua B. (2023, June 23). From Word Models to World Models: Translating from Natural Language to the Probabilistic Language of Thought. http://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12672
Zhi-Xuan, Tan, Gothoskar, Nishad, Pollok, Falk, Gutfreund, Dan, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., & Mansinghka, Vikash K. (2022, August 4). Solving the Baby Intuitions Benchmark with a Hierarchically Bayesian Theory of Mind. https://doi.org/10.48550/ARXIV.2208.02914